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June, 2002
China in the 21st Century - A Hong Kong Perspective of Future Opportunities and Challenges
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Introduction
It is my pleasure to be here
to speak on a subject very close to my heart: China's economy in the 21st
century. I would like to add that I am going to talk from a Hong Kong
perspective. We are from Hong Kong, we very much believe in the Hong Kong
story, and the Hong Kong perspective will add the right dimensions to
the unfolding of the bigger story.
Many of you are experts, with papers and statistics at hand. I am not
from the university; I am a businessman. So I speak from a businessman's
perspective.
Now, China is the big dragon in Asia and many people are wondering what
this new marketplace will mean. But before we talk about that, I think
we must have a good perspective of what is happening around the world.
International Developments
At the end of last year in
Doha, Qatar, the Fourth World Trade Organization Ministerial Conference
was held, and China became a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO).
But I do not think that was the big story. It was more the technical execution
of a decision. I think the major story to come from Doha's WTO meeting
was that its agenda was "no agenda," that we have probably come
to the end of the road in multilateral world trade discussions.
What we see instead are bilateral discussions, country-to-country discussions.
Everybody is now talking about bilateral trade relationships, free trade
areas. It is this story that should catch our attention.
In the future, there is not only going to be more government-to-government
dialogue, there is going to be more region-to-region dialogue. There are
regions within each country that are more dynamic than the country as
a whole, and they are going to start saying, "What are our agendas?
What are we going to talk about? Who are our strategic partners?"
This is significant.
From my visits to Europe, for example, you can see four regional engines
of growth: Milan and Lombardy, Stuttgart and Baden-Wuerttemberg, Barcelona
and Catalonia, Lyon and the Rhone-Alpes. These areas are small, but they
are very dynamic and have growth engine characteristics.
Back in Greater China, we also have four engines of growth, which I will
talk about later: Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta, Shanghai and the
Yangtze River Delta, the Bohai Coast area in the north, and, of course,
Taiwan is a very strong economic engine too.
A second factor is globalization. Globalization to many people means new
markets, bigger markets, and different markets. But to others it means
fierce, relentless competition. No matter what you sell today, the sales
price is going down, not up. Product cycles are now much shorter. Before
your product hits the shelf and is introduced to your customers, your
competitor has a new product competing with you. We see overcapacity,
that customers have a lot of choices, and that risks are rising in the
business environment.
Hollowing Out
In the context of Asia, there
is also this huge phenomenon that we call the "hollowing-out"
process, whereby China, besides opening its market, is also unleashing
a huge labor force on the world marketplace. This labor force can deal
with volume orders, quality orders, and hi-tech orders at a very competitive
price.
When I visited Korea, the deputy prime minister told me it was the "China
shock." Taiwanese companies are flooding to the Yangtze River Delta
and the Pearl River Delta. In Southeast Asia, Foreign Direct Investment
(FDI) is reverting to China. Of course, the biggest story is that some
people say that in five years, 50% of Japan's industry will have moved
to China. These are very significant issues and movements, which will
determine the events of the next 5, 10, 20 years in this area.
Let's look at China's foreign exchange reserves. At the end of last year,
they stood at US$ 200 billion, with US$ 45 billion from FDI. By the end
of this year, there is a possibility that they will reach US$ 300 billion,
with the FDI going to China reaching US$ 50 billion to US$ 60 billion.
Why is this happening? I think businesspeople instinctively put their
future where they think there is a market and a production advantage.
Also, many of their competitors are there. These are strong motivations.
Companies still keep their core competencies in product development, research
and development (R&D), technology, and marketing, but are shifting
their production elsewhere.
This phenomenon will greatly benefit China, providing a driving force
for new ideas, methods, processes, and talents. Coupled with the initiatives
taken by China's state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and private enterprises,
we see that the economic changes are going deep and have their own momentum.
The Reform Agenda
For the Beijing leadership,
the reform agenda is essential for continued growth. Rapid and sustainable
economic growth has become the basis of the government's domestic political
agenda, with the disappearance of ideology as a unifying force. One recent
development is the concept of "Three Representations": productivity,
cultural development, and a society that must cater for the interests
of all classes.
A strong management team will manage this mission/ agenda. Visit China
today, and you can meet mayors and vice-mayors from the age of 42 up.
There is a meritocracy. Anyone who takes these positions must be capable
of delivering the economic agenda and productivity. And this management
team is highly motivated to achieve what needs to be achieved in order
to move on in the next decade or two.
So I believe the three M's -- mission, management, and motivation -- provide
the driving force to undertake this very big mandate.
Regional Economic Cooperation
From a broader perspective,
the hollowing-out process has forced many people within the Asian region
to move up the value chain because it is impossible for many countries
to compete with China on cost and efficiency. This process, as with Hong
Kong, is a win-win proposition, and I believe we are going to see more
initiatives dealing with integration of regional economies.
Take the Boao Forum, which was held on Hainan Island earlier this year.
That was a strong and very important initiative--a starting point whereby
East Asian economic cooperation can be systemized and put in dialogue.
We have seen the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the European
Community, and we should be watching closely how Boao unfolds, because
the four pillars of Boao were China, Japan, South Korea, and the ASEAN
countries. I believe the agenda was right at the first meeting. I think
the second meeting will be better and that the next five years could see
the unfolding of a regional initiative that may develop into something
very meaningful for this area.
In the meantime, there is urgency on the Mainland, primarily in terms
of bringing the economy in line with WTO requirements. It will take massive
transformation over the next five years. By 2020, I believe we are going
to see a very different China from the one that we see today.
The Chinese Mainland can afford to do this because of its relatively closed
economy over the past decade. This closed economy has enabled China to
avoid collapse, unlike other economies around the region, during the last
two major downturns in Asia.
Black Holes
However, a large, complex
country such as China will never be without issues to sort out. People
here will be talking about the SOEs, unemployment, bad loans in banks
and also, perhaps, agricultural reform. But it is clear that without a
robust economic agenda, these problems would be even more serious and
difficult to resolve. That is why I said earlier that a strong agenda
of sustained economic development is a priority in order to deal with
many of the issues that must be dealt with.
In Beijing, about three or four months ago, I was at a meeting that the
prime minister attended. I asked how the central government was going
to deal with what I call "black hole" risks. A black hole is
when you see a bank making a terribly bad loan, or an SOE making a very
silly investment that results in the money being reduced to zero, and
in the past 20 years they have had more than their fair share of these
black holes.
The prime minister made this point very clear. He said they understand,
and it is a problem. How are they going to make sure that the resources
collected by the overall fiscal system and state institutions are not
subjected to this huge black-hole risk? They want to centralize resources
and channel them into countrywide infrastructure development, where they
can touch the investment, know the investment is going to be helpful to
the overall economic development of the country. There is a strong emphasis
on ensuring resources are channelled into this crucial aspect of economic
growth.
Hong Kong's First Milestone
Now I would like to bring
in the Hong Kong perspective. The first milestone was in 1979 when China
opened up.
This means Hong Kong has actually been hollowing out over the past 20
years. It happened much earlier here than anywhere else, and we are more
intensively hollowed out because we lost 1 million jobs in manufacturing.
But we have created 1 million jobs in services. Today, services represent
86% of Hong Kong's gross domestic product (GDP). Some say it is almost
90%. I believe 90% is probably closer. During this process, Hong Kong
has transformed itself into a service platform and a service provider.
In this period of time, Hong Kong also moved up the value chain so that
today, 36% of our companies own their own brand and 62% of our companies
do original design manufacturing. In 1979, we were ranked 23 in world
trade; today we are ranked number 10. In nine categories of consumer products,
we are ranked number 1 in the world. In another six or seven categories,
we are ranked number 2 in the world.
This is competitiveness, and anybody who questions Hong Kong's competitiveness
must look at our final output to the marketplace to measure whether we
are competitive or not.
Why has Hong Kong been successful? "三優四通" (the three advantages
and the four flows). The first advantage is our location, which is unbeatable.
The second is our institutions. An Italian high trade officer said to
me: "Hong Kong is a China that speaks English, where you can understand
the institutions, and the laws work."
The third advantage is our tax regime. This regime was created by Scottish
merchants, and you know how Scottish merchants feel about taxes! Hong
Kong is a place where you can work hard and work smart, and you can build
your wealth.
With regard to the four flows, we ensure that we have free flow of people
(that is, talent), free flow of capital, free flow of merchandise, and
also free flow of information. We have the freest press in Asia. Nobody
can beat that. We should be proud of it, and we should maintain it.
China understands all these issues very well. That's why our way of life
has remained unchanged, and the 1997 transition has been a success. I
do not see any domestic issues in Hong Kong that Hong Kong cannot solve.
And the future is fantastic for Hong Kong. In these 20 years, we have
become the largest investor in China. We have gained first-mover advantage
in China and, as a result, Hong Kong has become the best risk manager
on China.
China Risk Management
When I travel overseas--I
have now visited almost 70 cities--I meet a lot of taxi drivers, and all
can multiply 1.2 billion by whatever you have to sell and see it is a
big market. But potential is not the issue. Risk management is the issue
because many people who invested in China over the past 20 years, particularly
from overseas, have met with failure. Companies, especially medium-sized
and smaller ones, are scared of investing in China, of going it alone.
That is why over the past two years, American companies have opened 30%
more offices in Hong Kong, Japanese companies have opened 40% more, Australians
50% more, and Europeans over 20% more. I think they are all worried about
how you deal with the execution risk after entry.
When I was in Japan recently, a Japanese investor said, "I was in
Xian with a big contract. Before I signed the contract, there were parties
and it was great fun; after I signed the contract it was a completely
different story." He asked me what he should do. I said "Come
to Hong Kong. Find a partner. Maybe you will have a better time."
With Hong Kong's tremendous service platform and tax regime, it really
is a center for private enterprise and entrepreneurs. Many large companies
that are bureaucratic end up losing money because you cannot run a China
business bureaucratically.
Two-Way Platform
Through such enterprise,
the Pearl River Delta has emerged as the biggest single manufacturing
basin in the world. The three top exporters in China, according to 2001
figures, were Shenzhen with US$ 37 billion, Shanghai with US$ 27 billion,
and Dongguan with US$ 19 billion. As you can see, Shenzhen and Dongguan
together have doubled the output of Shanghai.
So Hong Kong is a two-way business and service platform. It provides one-stop
shopping for going into China and one-stop shopping to the world marketplace.
Critical Mass
To make ourselves more effective,
powerful, and competitive, Hong Kong is also building critical mass.
We are building critical mass in logistics. We send two tons of cargo
into the air every minute, making us the largest single international
air cargo transporter. We send 36 containers to sea every minute of the
year, making us the largest single seaport in the world. Our airport handles
36 million passengers today and has a capacity of 86 million passengers
throughput. The Atlanta airport in the United States handles 86 million
passengers, and no doubt the idea is that we build critical mass and become
the Atlanta here.
We are developing critical mass as a marketplace. After 911, our inflow
of exhibitors and buyers actually increased by double digits. Exhibitors
and buyers from the Mainland doubled that. The reason? Critical mass.
Before 911, people typically went to 9 or 10 conventions a year. Since
911, they go to 3 or 4, and the places they select are the ones with critical
mass.
Our portal, our cyber marketplace is hktdc.com. When I became chairman
about 20 months ago, it received 600,000 hits a day. Today it receives
well over 2 million hits a day and sometimes tops 3 million.
But we are not only building critical mass in merchandise trade. In financial
services, I see an offshore renminbi market as a natural development,
just like the Euro-dollar market developed in Europe. With that, you will
see a gravitation of the bond market and the foreign exchange market.
There are about 4 million private Small Medium Enterprises (SMEs) on the
Mainland, and they require the financial services that we offer.
We are building critical mass with regard to our institutions. The Hong
Kong International Arbitration Centre is going to help enormously here
because even now Mainland companies, in contracts between themselves,
have a clause for arbitration in Hong Kong.
These areas of critical mass are vital. They are going to help China to
fulfill WTO requirements at a much faster pace. Hong Kong is a partner
in this process, a service provider.
Hong Kong Business Model
When I go overseas, the message
I take, with regard to opportunities and the issues I have outlined, has
been very well received. I have seen over 12,000 businesspeople. Yet when
I come back to Hong Kong, I see many long faces. Everybody thinks it is
the end of the world.
The answer is no. Hong Kong has great prospects because we have a platform
that can out-compete anybody. Our hollowing-out process is faster than
anybody else's so we are best positioned. But we have to remember we cannot
be inward looking. We must look toward the market. Hong Kong only succeeds
by going toward the marketplace. And the marketplace is the overseas market,
which we are very familiar with, and now the China market. This is our
future.
What is the Hong Kong business model that can support this? It is simple.
Companies maintain product-development skills, R&D, technology; we
have our financial, insurance, logistics, tax and legal services; and
we outsource production. With this business model, whether you are in
hi-tech, low-tech, middle-tech, or no tech, there is business in Hong
Kong because there are huge marketplaces for us to service.
In the old days, we could no longer be a wig manufacturer for obvious
cost-production reasons. Today, if the China market wants wigs, I do not
see that we should rule out a Hong Kong company becoming a very successful
wig manufacturer. In fact, the company will be a wig marketer because
that is what Hong Kong is now all about. This is the importance of the
first milestone.
The Second Milestone
The second milestone is WTO
because I see the big dragon stretching with the WTO situation.
Last October at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting in
Shanghai, people said China had arrived. This echoed a statement made
in 1970 when Osaka held its expo, and it was said that Japan had arrived.
When looking at China, it is interesting to examine the macro picture,
which is huge and complex. But you can also choose to look at particular
aspects you feel will be relevant and significant. I choose to look at
three regions in China - the Pearl River Delta, the Yangtze River Delta,
and the Bohai area. When I talk about the Bohai Bay area, I really mean
Beijing, Tianjin. Hubei, Liaoning Province, and Shandong Province.
I see that these areas are three Japan equivalents. Not just one Japan
equivalent, three Japan equivalents. Look at Shanghai, for example. With
Jiangsu and Zhejiang, there are 100 million people in that region.
These areas have higher growth rates than other areas, and they are always
the first stop for anybody interested in China. It is important to look
at these key areas and try to understand them.
China's Engines
Here are some interesting
figures. These three areas added together comprise about 10% of China's
total geographical area, but the sum of their GDP is about 60% and their
exports about 85% of China's total.
What about the West? What about the poor areas? Yes, these are issues.
But unless the three areas I have mentioned continue to grow, the problems
in the other areas will be even worse because there are no engines to
support them.
I believe these three areas will catch up in terms of macro numbers much
faster than the rest of China. In terms of the population, they have about
one-third of China's total. In terms of GDP, if you add the three areas
together, it is really Japan of the late 1970s. If you look at the trade
and export side, it is really Japan of the late 1980s. We are talking
15 years apart in time. That is significant.
However, I would also like to make one point very clear. China has done
well, and it will continue to do well. But I do not think that we should
say it has done exceptionally well. If you compare the numbers, in growth
and dynamics, with the rest of the little dragons in Asia, it is actually
in line. It is simply China's turn.
Of course, when everyone else is down and China's turn comes up, it is
significant. But we should not be blinded by the fact that it is just
another success story in Asia. It is nothing exceptional, and we must
look at it from a pragmatic standpoint.
The Quick Dragon
So, finally, if China is
the big dragon, Hong Kong is the quick dragon. Hong Kong, the quick dragon,
has achieved number 10 ranking in world trade without a domestic market.
We have 6 million people in this city, and we have never had a domestic
market to speak of. Now a de facto domestic market is emerging next to
us. Think of what that means to Hong Kong's ability to trade.
Also, in 1949, the change of regime meant China's service industry was
greatly reduced. Today, its service industry is 33% of GDP, while in Hong
Kong, as I said before, it is 86%. So there is a tremendous arbitrage
opportunity for our services. Hong Kong's mandate is very clear: to help
rebuild China's service industry.
The service industry is about reducing and mitigating "delivery risks,"
and Hong Kong has a service industry culture where we can deal with delivery
risks. Today, China enterprises come to Hong Kong to sign service contracts
because they believe that a Hong Kong company will loyally, diligently,
deliver that service contract.
Although we talk about the difficulties of merchandise trade, the service
industry is even more difficult. When you sign a service contract and
your business depends on the delivery of it, you are going to go to somebody
you can rely on. It requires predictability and reliability, and these
are areas where Hong Kong can compete very well.
Hong Kong, just like any service company, wants a lot of clients. You
want your clients to increase. You want to see your clients getting stronger
and bigger so you have more business. This is how Hong Kong must look
at the China market. In 1979, our trade with China was 6%. Today, it is
37%. So the stronger China is, and the more cities like Shanghai develop,
the more business for Hong Kong, because we are a service platform.
As the big dragon stretches, I believe the quick dragon will reach for
this new market and new partners. We are blessed with "天時地利人和"
(being in the right place at the right time, and in harmony with our neighbor).
Thank you very much.
By Peter Woo
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Question and Answer
[Q1] You paint a very bright picture of an emerging China and
a Hong Kong quick enough to identify and take advantage of the opportunities.
What do you view as the principal challenges for Hong Kong in dealing
with China? What are those black hole issues, and how do you think
they will be addressed as the Chinese Mainland goes forward?
[A1] I think China's huge challenge is institutional change. You
cannot alter this overnight. It is a cultural issue. You can always
set rules, but you also need the culture to back up those rules,
and a trust in the system, which I think has room for improvements.
China must first bring the country technically in line with WTO,
but to ensure it complies in spirit, it will take time. In fact,
this challenge becomes Hong Kong's opportunity. You need a component
to help alleviate many difficulties during that process. I believe
Hong Kong can be that agent.
The SOEs and agriculture
are also major challenges. That is why I say being the prime minister
of China is the most difficult job in the world. Especially in the
next 20 years.
But for Hong Kong, I
think the major challenge is people, talent. In Hong Kong, people
are our only resource, and right now we have a mismatch. We do not
have enough of the resources we need. We also face a situation where
we have people who cannot find jobs because their skills have become
obsolete. This is a great difficulty. However, we cannot handle
this by procrastinating or continuing to ask how we can deal with
the problem. The issue is: how do we tackle the opportunities?
A door that is wider
open will bring in more skilled people, more entrepreneurs, and,
at the end of the day, they are the ones who are going to create
jobs. Government can provide short-term relief at best, but nothing
sustainable because there is no economic basis for jobs created
that way.
Hong Kong is the capital
of the world for SMEs. And this place is a historical accident.
You cannot create Hong Kong again. So never think of saying we want
to be somebody else. We do not want to be a New York. We do not
want to be a London. They can never be Hong Kong.
We are much more than
New York. We are much more than London because we are a platform
for entrepreneurs. How do we maximize this? We must allow more entrepreneurs
to come in, not just from America, Europe, India, Japan, but also
from the Chinese Mainland. I have already mentioned that there are
about 4 million SMEs in China. They want to be in Hong Kong too.
You want people who
can create transactions that will flow through this service platform.
Who can do this best? I believe it is SMEs, because in numbers,
agility and creativity, they are the ones that are going to find
the opportunities. Government cannot know which industry to go with
because it does not have capital at risk. But, for these people,
it is their own money. They will risk their capital when they see
an opportunity is clearly there.
So we need to look at
how to open up this platform to more creative entrepreneurs from
all over the world. However, we must not only look at the Hong Kong
platform. We must also look at the Pearl River Delta. As more companies
shift production there, Hong Kong must try to gain a market share
of that hollowing-out process. If we can help the Pearl River Delta
grow in its capabilities and production, it is naturally going to
benefit Hong Kong.
Therefore, it needs
to be a two-pronged approach. We cannot just promote Hong Kong skills
and creativity, we also want the Pearl River Delta to prosper, because
it is going to create a need for Hong Kong's business services,
and also a marketplace. There are already 30 million people in the
Pearl River Delta. That is a significant number of consumers. Many
European countries do not have populations of 30 million. Now we
have that.
[Q2] You have given a wonderful speech about China, and Hong
Kong's relationship with China. I know a lot of people have been
saying recovery in Hong Kong depends a lot on economic recovery
in the United States. What do you think about the relative importance
of the United States to Hong Kong vis a vis what you said just now
about China? You did not seem to talk about Hong Kong and America.
[A2] Although today's story is about China, I do not want anybody
to think that the outside market is not important. It is very important.
We do HK$ 3 trillion worth of trade a year, which is huge. We are
a one-stop shop to China; we are a one-stop shop to the world market.
The United States is
a very important market. When I saw Wal-Mart's business going up
again after 911, I was happy because it was good for Hong Kong.
Why? Because Wal-Mart sources through Hong Kong, Wal-Mart sources
through the Pearl River Delta.
So, where development
of the overseas market is concerned, we will be relentless. The
point is, it is not enough. We have been doing this for the past
40 or 50 years; the Hong Kong Trade Development Council (TDC) has
been set up for 35 years. It is important, crucial. But right now
U.S. trade with Hong Kong totals 28%. Our trade with China is 37%.
However, I don't think
we should be looking at whether the percentages are higher or lower.
We should examine the type of connection. Our link to the American
marketplace is very important in terms of market intelligence. We
must know what the customer wants, about product innovation and
business trends.
The United States has
been very innovative, not only on the product side but also in processes
and methods, because to deal with competition nowadays, people have
to use their brains. There are only a few giants who can compete
on price and volume alone. The rest of us have to think up other
ways of competing. So you want to tap into the world's most active
business brains in terms of market intelligence and customer needs.
Our link with China
has a different dimension because China is going through a different
phase of development. Do not look at them as the same thing. They
are apples and oranges. But we need apples and we also need oranges.
Both are just as important to us.
[Q3] I am asking for an extension of your thesis that Hong Kong's
continued prosperity will depend on its being the service center
for China. My question involves the emergence of other service providers
in the region. Perhaps, in the short run, Hong Kong will provide
services to China, and possibly with the emergence of Shanghai,
Southeast Asia should be the place for Hong Kong's services. But
this would depend on Singapore allowing it to happen. I would like
to know whether, in the medium term, Southeast Asia will become
a lot more important to Hong Kong's prosperity.
[A3] I look at it from a different perspective. I believe it will
depend on how competitive we are. There is no guaranteed meal for
us. You have got to be good; you have got to be providing a service.
When I am in Singapore,
my dialogue is very simple. It is important that Hong Kong and Singapore
continue to have interaction, because both Singapore and Hong Kong
are service platforms. It is through such interaction that we are
both going to get better, and in becoming better, we can be more
competitive in the marketplace.
I say there is more
work in China than Hong Kong can handle. I think Singapore service
providers should join hands with Hong Kong to deal with the demand
in China, because they have human resources. We are short of human
resources.
I am not scared of competition.
In fact, competition is Hong Kong's middle name. How could Hong
Kong have survived the past 50 years without competing with the
rest of the world? I do not know why people always say Hong Kong
is not competitive.
I would look at the
situation from the competitive standpoint and allow enterprises
to drive this service provision initiative. Shanghai coming up?
This is good for the area and good for Hong Kong. It is not bad
for Hong Kong. Why worry? We want more clients. We want stronger
clients. We know the problem of having no clients. In 1979 we had
no clients on the Mainland, and our trade was only 6%.
So I see competition
in a positive light. I do not think you can sit back and say "I
have a right to make money from the China story." Nobody is
going to pay you for doing nothing.
[Q4] I was particularly interested in the strong points about
the management of execution risk. This is a very big issue. Yet
the situation is imperfect, to say the least. I am interested in
how you see this evole, especially as more Mainland SOEs, as well
as private companies, come to Hong Kong and get involved in the
capital markets. Outside investors -- large fund managers from all
over the world - are attracted to Hong Kong because the market is
well regulated and, historically, the courts have been fair and
effective, as well as technically competent in commercial matters.
But there is no mutual enforcement agreement with China. We are
now seeing, especially after the handover, a number of cases where
the Hong Kong courts make a determination that either attaches the
assets of an SOE in China, or even orders their liquidation, and
China just ignores these orders. There is no means to enforce the
decisions of Hong Kong courts, or Hong Kong arbitrators, in the
Mainland, with the result that it is beginning to reflect rather
poorly on perceptions of the reliability of the Hong Kong courts
and their significance. How do you see this evolving? Will the situation
improve? And how specifically will it improve?
[A4] I think there is a strong motivation to make the change we
all know is going to happen. But everybody also understands it is
not going to be easy, and how much time it will take is anybody's
guess.
I would try to separate
the issue into two dimensions: the goods and services trade, and
the financial services trade.
As far as the goods
and services trade is concerned, I can give you an interesting example
from when I went to Osaka about 18 months ago. On that occasion,
I met a Japanese businessman who has three different businesses
in Hong Kong, each with an office of about 60 people and a factory
in the Pearl River Delta. I asked him how he handled the execution
risk, and he gave me a very simple answer. He said, "I only
know my business. When I have to deal with the execution risk, I
send my Hong Kong managers." In other words, if you try to
go it alone, like many of his compatriots, there are a lot of problems.
No one really thinks
about it, but Hong Kong offers this service. That is why I say,
Hong Kong people have got to know how to speak Mandarin, English
and, of course, Cantonese. "兩文三語" (biliterate, trilingual).
Communication skills are very important. If you know how to do business
in China, that is additional plus. And anybody who understands commerce,
trade, and industry will never have to worry about having a bowl
of rice in the future because China and WTO means commerce, trade,
and industry. We offer a combination of partnerships, strategic
alliances, overseas entrepreneurs, and Hong Kong execution.
The capital markets
issue is also very important. Many people are worried about Shanghai
taking over from Hong Kong. What we should understand is that it
is the international marketplace that decides who will be an international
financial center. You cannot decide by yourself. To become such
a center, there are hurdles to clear.
The first hurdle is
currency convertibility. The second is a legal system in terms of
settlement, predictability, and transparency. You need to know what
you are going to get, what the outcome will be. When you are dealing
with financial services, you are talking about huge volumes of transactions
every day. The system cannot go wrong. You must have a high degree
of trust in that system and how it is going to pan out.
The third is that financial
centers such as London or New York are totally private capital.
State capital does not come in because otherwise it would not be
a level playing field, and we must ensure that government in Hong
Kong does not come in.
The fourth hurdle is
information. You must have a free press because everybody must have
information at the same time and be able to find out information
to, again, ensure a level playing field.
Anyone who wants to
compete will have to jump these hurdles. When they are able to clear
them depends on their own actions and on how the international financial
market sees that city's performance in these areas.
[Q5] You pointed out earlier that many companies have set up
offices in Hong Kong because of the need for risk management. Do
you think this is a temporary phenomenon? Would risk management
be better in the long run done close to the scene? How can Hong
Kong hold its competitive advantage in being a place where you manage
the business remotely?
[A5] Risk management all depends on risk. If there is risk, then
you have risk management. If there is no risk, there are no risk
management needs.
Where will such management
be done? I think there will be many situations where it will be
done locally. However, the real issue here is cultural compatibility,
and Hong Kong is still much closer to Western business culture in
handling contracts, delivery issues, contract integrity, and the
spirit of contracts.
With regard to timing,
Hong Kong businesses do not operate on a long time frame. They do
not expect matters to be permanent. The competitive, worldwide situation
confirms that nothing is permanent.
So while this opportunity
will not last forever, I can say that in the foreseeable future,
the need is going to be intense.
[Q6] The strength of a country's economy may depend on internal
markets as in the European Union and the United States. Could you
give us a few words about China's internal markets?
[A6] There are economists and people from the university here today
that are much more learned than I am on this.
What I can say is that
over the past 20 years, China has been export-driven because of
the need for foreign capital and foreign exchange reserves to help
the domestic side. But if you visit the Pearl River Delta, Shanghai,
Beijing, I think you will be able to convince yourself that the
domestic market is developing very fast.
You may say how can
I tackle 1.2 billion people? Don't look at it that way. There are
900 million people on the farm, leaving 300 million people in the
cities. Those 300 million people in the cities are consumers, and
I think we are just heading into the next phase where domestic demand
will take the economy further.
When is it going to
happen? It is happening. On what scale? In some places, it is more
intensive, in others, a little bit slower. But the general direction
is very clear.
[Q7] You mentioned that we need more talent to move up the value
chain. The government has talked about importation of talent for
a long time. As one of Hong Kong's leading businessmen and head
of TDC, what steps do you think we should take to hasten this?
[A7] My thinking is fairly broad with regard to talent and more
companies coming in. We certainly should not bar Mainland companies
or entrepreneurs, because they know the domestic market in China
and should be an important component of our platform.
For overseas companies
too, there are still many restrictions when it comes to working
here. We should try to take down the high walls we have built to
make Hong Kong a platform that can be adopted by anybody with a
business idea.
I have always said that
in the past, TDC seemed only to serve Hong Kong companies, and I
have suggested that TDC serve any company using the Hong Kong platform,
because in utilizing our platform, they will drive more transactions
through Hong Kong, and at the end of the day, this means more jobs
for Hong Kong. Jobs will be created in Hong Kong through broader
networking and allowing business talents to come in to generate
more activities.
With regard to immigration
policy, TDC does not have that mandate. We are in trade and services,
not in the business of people yet. But I am certain the government
is well aware of this matter, and I am optimistic something positive
will develop.
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Mr. Peter Woo GBS, JP is Chairman of the Hong Kong Trade Development Council
and the Chairman of The Wharf (Holdings) Limited. This article is a transcript
of his keynote speech given at the "China's Economy in the 21st Century"
International Conference held on June 24-25, 2002 at the Island Shangri-la
Hotel, Hong Kong. The Conference was organized by The Hong Kong Institute
of Economics and Business Strategy, The University of Hong Kong.
The Hong Kong Centre for
Economic Research
School of Economics and Finance
The University of Hong Kong
Phone: (852) 2547-8313 Fax: (852) 2548-6319
email: hkcer@econ.hku.hk
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