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8 March, 2007

Meeting Needs Without a Budget Splurge
Content provided by:
The Wall Street Journal Briefing (WSJB) logo

Delivering his annual report on the work of the government to the legislature, Mr. Wen promised a significant boost in state spending on social services, as well as a smaller budget deficit. That's the balancing act his administration is performing as it tries to spread the benefits of China's booming economy more widely-without disrupting that growth.

Officials believe the main risk now isn't a slowdown or recession, but a surge in bank lending and corporate investment that could weigh down the economy with more factories and property developments than are needed.

The government unveiled new commitments to China's citizens during this week's National People's Congress.

Included in the plan are increases to tuition spending, a new welfare system and a new type of rural health-care service.

While Beijing raises spending on rural areas and social services, the government will actually put less money, in total, into the economy.

In part, that reflects officials' conservative instincts. When tax revenue last year came in much higher than expected, 50 billion yuan ($6.5 billion) was set aside to start an emergency fund.

Another constraint, economists say, is that while the government may have the financial means to lift spending, it doesn't have the capacity to effectively monitor and direct a lot of new money.

With the dismantling of the planned economy over the past three decades, the institutions that used to provide housing, food and medicine to the population have been demolished.

As a result, China's spending on social services remains extremely low by global standards. The combined spending on health care by central and local governments totaled just 131.16 billion yuan in 2006, or about 0.6% of GDP.

According to the World Bank, developed nations spend an average of 6% of GDP. For China to achieve a similar level, it would have had to spend 1.26 trillion yuan last year.

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